We tend to focus a lot of energy on making “good” decisions. But I think it’s more important to think about making the right type of decision for the problem you are facing. Most "bad" decision making isn't bad in a generic way, but "bad" in the sense that it is contextually incorrect. Deciding about which type of jam you should buy at the grocery store is qualitatively different decision than … [Read more...]
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How to Use the Cynefin Framework to Make Better Decisions
Facebook’s motto for many years was “move fast and break things.” Regardless of one’s opinion on Facebook, it’s hard to argue that this wasn’t the strategically correct business decision: it enabled a period of rapid growth where they outcompeted almost every other social network and established one of the most valuable companies in the world. This phrase and approach were repeated and copied, … [Read more...]
Reality Has a Surprising Amount of Detail
It's a small world, but I'd hate to have to paint it.” —Steven Wright How confident are you about your ability to judge your own expertise? Do you think you generally know what you are good at and what you are bad at? Most people suffer from overconfidence bias. They tend to think that they know more than they really do. But surely you, in your infinite wisdom, are not one of these … [Read more...]
Coronavirus Primer for Reasonably Rational People
Last Updated March 7, 2020 Disclaimers/Caveats: I am not a public health expert, epidemiologists, etc. and make no claim to such. As mentioned numerous times throughout, all data is preliminary and my interpretation is amateur and should be interpreted as such. My goal here is merely to provide a helpful synthesis of existing information and a way to think about further developments. There is a … [Read more...]
The Paint Drop Method for Figuring Out What To Do with Your Life (and Becoming the Best in the World At It)
Horace Mann, often credited as the father of the modern education system, began opening The Common School in the 1830s. The purpose of the Common School was to teach students how to follow directions effectively so they would be prepared for factory work. A few years after the first Common School opened, Mann couldn’t find enough “normal” teachers to help make the students “common.” So, Mann … [Read more...]