There is history: what happened, but there is also a broader question: how does history happen, what drives it? Over time, different philosophies of history come in and out of vogue and so you tend to get different accounts of the same period or person: history has its own history. I like reading history and have read a fair amount and there are at least five different schools of what drives … [Read more...]
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How to Predict our Economic, Political and Cultural Futures
I tend to subscribe to a theory of history which I will call soft technological determinism. It sees technology as the primary driving force of history. In this model, technology is upstream of economics which is upstream of culture which is upstream of politics. At one level, this is kind of a silly thing to say. It is sort of a version of the question "Does art imitate life or does life … [Read more...]
The Maginot Line Problem
The Maginot Line was a line of concrete fortifications, obstacles and weapons built by France in the 1930s to deter invasion by Germany. When it was built, the Maginot Line was believed to be one of the most significant innovations in national defense. Foreign leaders came from all over to tour it. It was an impressive-looking series of fortresses and railroads, resistant to all known … [Read more...]